For the first time since the dawn of democracy, the African National Congress (ANC) approaches its 113th anniversary celebrations, the January 8 Statement, in a precarious position. Once the unshakable pillar of South Africa’s political landscape, the party now finds itself wounded and limping, struggling with a sharp decline in electoral support. This downturn forced the ANC into coalition government arrangements, under the banner of the Government of National Unity (GNU), a stark contrast to its previous dominance.
The ANC’s declining support is evident at all levels of governance, from the national stage to provincial and local spheres. This loss of confidence has been compounded by the passing of key leaders, such as former finance minister Tito Mboweni and former state enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan, who both contributed significantly to the party’s legacy. Tragically, their deaths add to a growing list of leadership losses that the ANC has had to contend with over the past year.
The political landscape was further shaken when members of the ANC, including some disgruntled factions, broke away to form the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), led by former president Jacob Zuma. This move further fragmented the already weakened party, signaling a fracture within the ranks that had previously been unimaginable. Over the past three decades, the ANC enjoyed near-total dominance, securing two-thirds of the national vote, except in the Western Cape. However, the May 2024 general elections were a turning point. For the first time since 1994, the ANC failed to secure more than 50% of the vote, marking a humiliating defeat that underscored the party’s vulnerability.
As the ANC reflects on its decline, many are asking whether the party can reclaim its lost ground and rise again from these setbacks. Professor Siphamandla Zondi, an analyst and director of the Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg, believes the party’s potential for recovery lies in confronting the very issues that have led to its decline. Zondi identifies arrogance, a disconnect from the needs of the people, and internal divisions—particularly the split caused by the MKP’s formation—as central to the ANC’s fall from grace.
“There has been no visible change of behaviour,” Zondi observed. “We have not seen any indication that the party is correcting the factors that caused its decline. Whatever the cause, they must now take concrete action to address it if they are to avoid further losses.” Zondi stressed that such action should manifest in tangible improvements in government performance, particularly in essential areas like service delivery. The people, he noted, are tired of unfulfilled promises. They need to see real progress in areas such as water access, housing, and infrastructure development. Unfortunately, there has been little sign of change in the months following the 2024 elections, which has further eroded public trust in the ANC’s ability to lead.
As the ANC prepares for its January 8 Statement on January 11, at the Mandela Park Stadium in Khayelitsha, Western Cape, there is hope that this event can be a turning point. The stadium, with a capacity of 22,000, will be the venue for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s keynote address, which could shape the party’s future direction. ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula emphasized that the choice of the Western Cape for this year’s celebrations is symbolic, given the province’s profound history of resistance against colonialism, slavery, and apartheid. “The people of this province have been at the forefront of the fight for justice,” Mbalula said, underscoring the ANC’s continued commitment to the liberation and development of South Africa.
Mbalula invoked the words of the 1972 January 8 Statement, which called for a renewed struggle against apartheid at a time when the enemy thought the ANC was broken. He said, “We are unbroken, we are undeterred, and we are advancing,” a rallying cry for the party as it faces the monumental task of rebuilding itself. While the rhetoric is bold, the challenge of renewal remains daunting.
In KwaZulu-Natal, ANC chairperson Siboniso Duma echoed a sentiment of resilience. He framed the party’s struggles as a source of strength, galvanizing them to double their efforts in ensuring that the ANC remains the sole vehicle for societal transformation. Duma cited the party’s founding figures, such as JL Dube, Sol Plaatje, and Pixley ka Isaka Seme, who believed the ANC was the only organisation capable of leading the government and driving meaningful change. According to Duma, the ANC must remain true to its roots as a vehicle for the people’s power and transformation.
As part of the renewal process, Duma stressed that the party would act decisively against any acts of corruption or misconduct that tarnish its reputation. The message was clear: the ANC must cleanse itself of disloyal members, those who joined the party for self-serving reasons, and those who prioritize factional loyalty over the party’s values. This ideological renewal, he argued, is critical to the ANC’s survival.
It is unclear whether the ANC can truly renew itself in the face of such significant challenges. But if the party is to regain the public’s trust, it will need to demonstrate that it has learned from its mistakes and is committed to reform, not only in its internal structures but also in its service to the people of South Africa. The January 8 Statement offers the ANC a moment of reflection, but it must also serve as a launching pad for real change, both in governance and in the party’s approach to the country’s needs. Only time will tell if the ANC can successfully navigate these turbulent waters and reclaim its position as the leader of the democratic South Africa.
