Mozambique is currently experiencing a temporary lull in election-related violence, but experts warn that this calm could be deceptive. As the country prepares for the presidential inauguration, political tensions remain high, and the lull may only be the “eye of the storm.” The upcoming transition of power is likely to bring renewed unrest, as political rivalries and grievances between the ruling FRELIMO party and opposition groups, particularly RENAMO, continue to simmer.
Mozambique has a history of election-related violence, often linked to the country’s deeply entrenched political divide. RENAMO, which was once a rebel force during the country’s civil war, has frequently accused FRELIMO of electoral fraud and unfair practices. This has led to violent protests, insurgencies, and even political assassinations. Though the civil war officially ended in 1992, the political rivalry between the two factions has persisted, often spilling into violence during key electoral periods.
The current lull in violence suggests a temporary pause in the ongoing tensions, but many fear it may not last long. With the presidential inauguration just around the corner, there is significant concern that disputes over election results and political power could reignite conflict. If opposition groups feel the elections were rigged or manipulated, the country could face a surge in protests or even armed resistance, particularly in rural regions where RENAMO still holds considerable support.
This period of calm also has broader implications for regional stability, especially for neighboring South Africa. Mozambique’s political turmoil often impacts border areas, where violence can spill over, and security and trade routes may be disrupted. Additionally, Mozambique’s struggle with insurgencies in the north, exacerbated by groups linked to ISIS, further complicates its security situation and may add fuel to the fire in the run-up to the inauguration.
As the nation gears up for the presidential inauguration, Mozambique must ensure a peaceful and transparent process. International bodies like the African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) are expected to monitor the situation closely. Without meaningful efforts to resolve underlying political tensions, the lull in violence could be just a brief interlude before the storm of conflict returns, threatening the country’s stability and democratic progress.
