The fuel price relief that South Africans experienced in the latter part of 2024, when petrol and diesel prices dipped to three-year lows, appears to be short-lived, as the latest data suggests upcoming increases. The Central Energy Fund’s latest figures predict a rise in petrol prices of around 64 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded and 68 cents for 93 Unleaded, while diesel could see a hike between 70 cents (500ppm) and 72 cents (50ppm).
Despite the significant dip in fuel prices throughout October 2024, which saw petrol and diesel reach their lowest levels since February 2022, this relief has already begun to reverse. Over the past three months, the price of petrol has increased by 54 cents, while diesel has risen by 82 cents. Should these predictions hold true, a litre of 95 Unleaded petrol could cost around R21.44 at the coast and R22.23 inland by February 2025. In contrast, 93 Unleaded could retail at approximately R22.02.
However, the situation is not entirely bleak. Despite the predicted increase, petrol will still be priced over one rand less than it was a year ago. Coastal 95 Unleaded, for example, was priced at R22.52 in February 2024, meaning that the fuel price, even after the anticipated hike, will still be more affordable than it was at the same time last year.
The fuel price outlook remains uncertain, as these predictions are based on early-month data. Several factors could influence price changes throughout the remainder of the month. Notably, a weaker rand and stronger international oil prices are contributing to substantial under-recoveries for both petrol and diesel. The price of Brent crude oil averaged $72.78 (R1,318) in December, with the rand averaging R18.11 to the US dollar. As of January 9, 2025, oil prices were trading at $76.16, while the rand had weakened further to R18.98.
International oil prices began the week at three-month highs, bolstered by fresh economic stimulus measures from China and the anticipation of potential sanctions from former U.S. President Donald Trump against major oil producer Iran. These global factors are contributing to a less favourable fuel price outlook, complicating efforts to manage local price stability.
As it stands, the combination of a weaker rand and rising international oil prices looks set to push fuel prices higher in the coming weeks, putting further pressure on consumers. While the situation remains fluid and subject to change, it’s clear that South Africans may face a tougher fuel cost environment as 2025 progresses.