Despite a recent uptick in global oil prices, South Africans can still expect significant relief at the fuel pumps in September. Both petrol and diesel prices are set to drop, offering a welcome reprieve to consumers. However, this downward trend could be short-lived, with a potential reversal on the horizon in October if oil prices continue to climb.
According to unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) released on August 27, petrol prices are anticipated to decrease by 83 cents per liter for 93 Unleaded and 90 cents per liter for 95 Unleaded in September.
Diesel prices are also expected to see reductions, with 500ppm set to drop by 72 cents per litre and 50ppm by as much as 98 cents per litre While these figures offer hope, the outlook could still shift in the coming days. Factors such as the Slate Levy may influence the final pricing, but it is unlikely that the anticipated decreases will change significantly before the Department of Energy announces the official adjustments early next week. These new prices will come into effect on Wednesday, September 4.
The recent surge in Brent crude oil prices, which saw a 3% increase to $81.43 per barrel on Monday, August 27, has been driven by production cuts in Libya and escalating conflict in the Middle East, according to a report by Reuters. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at Swiss bank UBS, highlighted the potential risk of further reductions in Libyan oil production due to political instability, which could severely impact global supply.
Looking ahead to October, the future of fuel prices remains uncertain. Should Brent crude prices continue to rise, the current cycle of price decreases could come to an end, with the possibility of an increase in fuel prices. However, the strong performance of the South African rand, which was trading at R17.76 to the US dollar on August 27, down from an average of R18.23 earlier in the month, is providing some support to the fuel price outlook.
A decrease in petrol prices by around 80 cents in September will bring costs down to levels not seen since January. Following a modest 15-cent decrease in August, 95 Unleaded petrol currently retails for R22.32 per liter at the coast and R23.11 per liter in inland regions, where 93 Unleaded is priced at R22.71 per liter.
As South Africans prepare for the September fuel price adjustments, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the anticipated relief will be sustained or if consumers will face renewed pressure at the pumps in the months ahead.
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