The size of the crowd at African National Congress (ANC) rallies has long been a topic of discussion, with the party’s January 8 celebrations often seen as a barometer of its political strength. This year, the party has chosen to hold its 113th birthday event at the relatively small Mandela Park Stadium in Khayelitsha, Cape Town. With a capacity of only 2,000 seats, the venue is a stark contrast to the sprawling 43,000-capacity Mbombela Stadium in Mpumalanga, where the ANC held its 2024 birthday rally. The smaller venue for the 2025 celebration has already sparked debate, raising questions about the party’s support in the Western Cape, traditionally a stronghold of the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) since 2009.
For decades, the January 8 rally has been a cornerstone event in the ANC’s political calendar, commemorating the party’s founding on January 8, 1912, in Bloemfontein. Yet, despite its significance, the size of the crowds attending these rallies is not always directly linked to the stature or popularity of the sitting party president. Various factors, such as weather, the location of the event, and even the capacity of the stadium, can influence attendance. The party has seen considerable fluctuation in crowd numbers over the years, with some rallies drawing tens of thousands, while others, like the one planned for 2025, appear set to be among the smallest in over a decade.
The decision to hold the 2025 January 8 celebrations at Mandela Park comes after the ANC’s disappointing performance in the May 29 national and provincial elections, which saw a marked decline in voter turnout in certain regions. ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula expressed confidence that the venue would be filled, noting that the rally would serve to reconnect with the local community. By choosing the Western Cape for the event, the party aims to address its weakened presence in the province and rekindle support in a region where the DA has made significant inroads. Additionally, the choice of a smaller venue reflects the party’s current financial constraints, which have made it more difficult to transport supporters from other provinces.
Looking back, the ANC’s January 8 rallies have witnessed various milestones and shifting political priorities under different party presidents. The 1990 declaration, delivered by Nelson Mandela, came just five years after the start of talks between the ANC and the apartheid government, focusing on nation-building and social harmony. Thabo Mbeki’s administration, in contrast, used the occasion to stress the need for economic transformation and global competitiveness, particularly in his 2007 speech, which underscored the importance of combating poverty. Jacob Zuma’s tenure saw the January 8 speeches pivot towards popular mobilization and the creation of a more inclusive society, while Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent addresses have been marked by themes of renewal, unity, and progress, particularly in his 2018 speech, which coincided with the centenary of Nelson Mandela’s birth.
This year, as Ramaphosa prepares to deliver his January 8 statement at the Mandela Park Stadium, the ANC’s diminished presence in the Western Cape underscores the party’s evolving political landscape. Despite the smaller venue, the speech will likely continue the president’s focus on revitalizing the party and addressing the pressing issues facing South Africa, including unemployment, inequality, and national unity. While the ANC may face a challenging road ahead, particularly in the face of growing opposition and internal divisions, the January 8 celebrations will be an opportunity for Ramaphosa to reaffirm the party’s commitment to the values that have defined it since its inception over a century ago.
In contrast to the grand spectacles of previous years, such as the 2015 rally at the 55,000-capacity Cape Town Stadium or the large-scale gatherings in KwaZulu-Natal in 2019, the 2025 event in Khayelitsha marks a shift in how the ANC approaches its celebrations. It reflects a recognition that, in the current political climate, a smaller, more intimate gathering may be more effective in fostering direct engagement with the community. This change in approach also signals an acknowledgment of the party’s financial limitations, but more importantly, it highlights the ANC’s determination to rebuild and strengthen its grassroots support as it enters another crucial year of national politics. The upcoming January 8 rally, regardless of its size, will be a pivotal moment for the party as it seeks to reassert its relevance in the Western Cape and beyond.
